Keywords
Energy Transition
Economy
Digital
How to Cite
Abstract
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has expanded significantly in recent years, permeating various sectors of the economy and daily lives. However, this rapid adoption requires an analysis of the underlying trade-offs associated with its operation, which are often unknown to the public. Based on an analysis of data extracted from academic articles, technical reports, data repositories, and government documents, this article explores the physical, energy, and geopolitical dimensions underpinning AI. Despite often being perceived as immaterial, AI relies on a vast and complex physical infrastructure, supported by data centers that house thousands of pieces of equipment manufactured from a wide range of minerals and metals, many of which are classified as critical. Currently, approximately 12,000 data centers are in operation worldwide, including 992 hyperscale facilities that cover areas of thousands of square meters. The short life cycle of data center equipment, combined with inadequate disposal, removes valuable metals from the supply chain, intensifying mineral extraction and exacerbating socio-environmental impacts. Meanwhile, the competition between the United States and China for control over critical minerals and leadership in AI technologies has heightened geopolitical tensions, with mutual restrictions on the export of advanced technologies and essential minerals. Another key aspect is the high energy consumption of AI applications: in the United States, data centers already account for about 4% of national electricity consumption, with projections reaching 9.1% by 2030. Although major technology companies invest in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, to meet this growing demand, these sources also require significant volumes of critical minerals. This set of factors highlights the complex interconnection between Artificial Intelligence, Data Centers, Critical Minerals, Energy, and Geopolitics.
References
ADEME - L’agence de L’environnement Et de La Maîtrise de L’énergie. La face cachée du numérique: réduire les impacts du numérique sur l’environnement. Paris: Republique Française, 2021. 24 p. (979-10-297-1691-1). Disponível em: https://cnm.fr/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ademe_guide-pratique-face-cachee-numerique.pdf. Acesso em: 10. dez. 2024.
ALONSO, A. El multicolor de la energía: desafíos y oportunidades para la transición energética. Cidade do México: Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, 2024. 220 p. Disponível em: https://rosalux.org.mx/libro-multicolor-de-la-energia/. Acesso em: 24 nov. 2024.
AMAZON. Amazon meets 100% renewable energy goal 7 years early. 2024a. Written by Amazon Staff. Disponível em: https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/sustainability/amazon-renewable-energy-goal. Acesso em: 16 dez. 2024.
AMAZON. Amazon's leadership helping to harness the carbon-free might of ocean winds. 2024b. Written by Amazon Staff. Disponível em: https://www.aboutamazon.eu/news/sustainability/amazons-leadership-helping-to-harness-the-carbon-free-might-of-ocean-winds. Acesso em: 21 dez. 2024.
AREDDY, J.; FOLLOW, S. China restricts exports of two minerals used in high-performance chips. The Wall Street Journal. [S.L.], p. 1. jul. 2023. Disponível em: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-restricts-exports-of-two-metals-used-in-high-performance-chips-a649402b. Acesso em: 25 nov. 2024.
BOURZAC, K. Fixing AI’s energy crisis. Nature, [S.L.], p. 1, 17 out. 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-03408-z.
BRADSHER, K. China Tightens Its Hold on Minerals Needed to Make Computer Chips. The New York Times. [S.L.], p. 1. 26 out. 2024. Disponível em: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/26/business/china-critical-minerals-semiconductors.html. Acesso em: 25 nov. 2024.
CALMA, J. Google’s future data centers will be built next to solar and wind farms. The Verge. [S.L.], p. 1. 10 dez. 2024a. Disponível em: https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/10/24317888. Acesso em: 16 dez. 2024.
CALMA, J. Microsoft made the biggest renewable energy agreement ever to fuel its AI ambitions. The Verge. [S.L.], p. 1. maio 2024b. Disponível em: https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/2/24147153. Acesso em: 20 dez. 2024.
CHATTERJEE, A; VENUGOPAL, V. Designing Data Centers for AI Clusters. [S.L]: JDCN, 2023. 34 p. Disponível em: https://www.juniper.net/documentation/us/en/software/nce/ai-clusters-data-center-design/ai-clusters-data-center-design.pdf. Acesso em: 21 nov. 2024.
EDMOND, C. What is open-source AI and how could DeepSeek change the industry? World Economic Forum (WEF). [S.L.], p. 1. fev. 2025. Disponível em: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/02/open-source-ai-innovation-deepseek/. Acesso em: 20 fev. 2025.
EPRI - Electric Power Research Institute. Powering Intelligence: analyzing artificial intelligence and data center energy consumption. Palo Alto, CA (U.S): Electric Power Research Institute, 2024. 35 p. Disponível em: https://www.epri.com/research/products/000000003002028905. Acesso em: 04 dez. 2024.
FREIFELD, K; POTKIN, F. US ordered TSMC to halt shipments to China of chips used in AI applications. Reuters. [S.L.], p. 11. nov. 2024. Disponível em: https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-ordered-tsmc-halt-shipments-china-chips-used-ai-applications-source-says-2024-11-10/. Acesso em: 26 nov. 2024.
FRIESEN, G. Trump’s AI Push: Understanding The $500 Billion Stargate Initiative. Forbes [S.L.], 24. jan. 2025. Disponível em: https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfriesen/2025/01/23/trumps-ai-push-understanding-the-500-billion-stargate-initiative/. Acesso em: 18 fev. 2025.
GOOGLE. Data Centers: Photo Gallery. Google. 2024a. Disponível em: https://www.google.com/about/datacenters/gallery/. Acesso em 12 dez. 2024.
GOOGLE. Google’s 2024 Environmental Report. [S.L]: Google, 2024b. 86 p. Disponível em: https://sustainability.google/reports/google-2024-environmental-report/e-2024-environmental-report.pdf. Acesso em: 18 dez. 2024.
HOLLAND, S. Trump announces private-sector $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure. Reuters. [S.L.], 22. jan. 2025. Disponível em: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/trump-announce-private-sector-ai-infrastructure-investment-cbs-reports-2025-01-21/. Acesso em: 18 fev. 2025.
HOSKINS, P. US orders immediate halt to some AI chip exports to China, Nvidia says. British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). [S.L.], p. 1. out. 2023. Disponível em: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67213134. Acesso em: 27 nov. 2024.
HWANG, T. Computational power and the social impact of artificial intelligence. ArXiv preprint, [S.L.], 2018. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1803.08971
IEA - International Energy Agency. Electricity 2024: analysis and forecast to 2026. Paris (France): International Energy Agency, 2024. 170 p. Disponível em: https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2024. Acesso em: 04 dez. 2024.
IEA - International Energy Agency. The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions. Paris, France: IEA, 2021. 287 p. Disponível em: https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions. Acesso em: 01 dez. 2024.
JIANG, Y.; LI, X.; LUO, H.; YIN, S.; KAYNAK., O. Quo vadis artificial intelligence? Discover Artificial Intelligence, [S.L.], v. 2, n. 1, p. 1, 7 mar. 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s44163-022-00022-8.
LUCCIONI, S.; JERNITE, Y.; STRUBELL, E. Power Hungry Processing: watts driving the cost of ai deployment? ACM, [S.L.], p. 85-99, 3 jun. 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3630106.3658542.
MILANEZ, B.; DORN, F. Lithium policies in Latin America: old wine in new bottles? Kobra, Extractivism Policy Briefs [S.L.], v. 2024, n. 8, p. 1-17, 2024. https://doi.org/10.17170/kobra-2024082710725.
MILMO, D. ChatGPT reaches 100 million users two months after launch. The Guardian. [S.L.], p. 1. 2 fev. 2023. Disponível em: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/02/chatgpt-100-million-users-open-ai-fastest-growing-app. Acesso em: 14 jan. 2025.
MILMO, D.; HAWKINS, A.; BOOTH, K.; KOLLEWE, J. ‘Sputnik moment’: $1tn wiped off US stocks after Chinese firm unveils AI chatbot. The Guardian. [S.L.], 28 jan. 2025. Disponível em: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/27/tech-shares-asia-europe-fall-china-ai-deepseek. Acesso em: 20 fev. 2025.
NAKANO, J. The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals Supply Chains. Washington, D.C., U.S: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2021. 38 p. Disponível em: https://www.csis.org/analysis/geopolitics-critical-minerals-supply-chains. Acesso em: 21 nov. 2024.
NEWMARK. 2023 U.S. Data Center Market: overview & market clusters. New York, NY, U.S: Newmark, 2024. 22 p. Disponível em: https://www.nmrk.com/insights/market-report/2023-u-s-data-center-market-overview-market-clusters. Acesso em: 20 dez. 2024.
PEHLKEN, A.; HINTEMANN, R.; PENAHERRERA, F.; GIZLI, V.; HURRELMANN, K.; HINTERHOLZER, S. Total Energy Management for Professional Data Centers. [S.L]: Carl Von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, 2019. 153 p. Disponível em: https://tempro-energy.de/. Acesso em: 19 nov. 2024.
POWELL, P.; SMALLEY, I. What is a hyperscale data center? 2024. IBM. Disponível em: https://www.ibm.com/br-pt/topics/hyperscale-data-center. Acesso em: 18 nov. 2024.
RASHID, A. B.; KAUSIK, A. AI revolutionizing industries worldwide. Hybrid Advances, [S.L.], v. 7, p. 100277, dez. 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hybadv.2024.100277.
REUTERS. US targets China over semiconductors. Reuters. [S.L.], p. 1. 30 jun. 2023. Disponível em: https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-targets-china-over-semiconductors-2023-06-30/. Acesso em: 26 nov. 2024.
ROBBINS, S.; VAN-WYNSBERGHE, A. Our New Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure: becoming locked into an unsustainable future. Sustainability, [S.L.], v. 14, n. 8, p. 4829, 18 abr. 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14084829.
SAUL, J.; NICOLETTI, L.; RAI, S.; BASS, D.; KING, I.; DUGGAN, J. AI Is Already Wreaking Havoc on Global Power Systems. Bloomberg. [S.L.], jun. 2024. Technology: p. 1. Disponível em: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-ai-data-centers-power-grids/. Acesso em: 06 dez. 2024.
SP ENERGY - SB Energy Announces Commercial Operation of American-made Solar Projects to Help Power Google Data Centers. 2024. Disponível em: https://sbenergy.com/american-made-solar-projects-power-google-data/. Acesso em: 20 dez. 2024.
STACCIARINI, J. H. S.; GONÇALVES, R. J. A. F. Energy Transition and Mining in the Global South. Socarxiv, [S.L.], p. 1-23, fev. 2025b. Center for Open Science. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/n8m57_v1.
STACCIARINI, J. H. S.; GONÇALVES, R. J. A. F. Global Geography of the Energy Transition and Mineral Extraction. Socarxiv, [S.L.], p. 1-18, fev. 2025a. Center for Open Science. http://dx.doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/jdfyw_v1.
STATISTA - Artificial intelligence (AI) market size worldwide from 2020 to 2030. 2024a. Disponível em: https://www.statista.com/forecasts/1474143/global-ai-market-size. Acesso em: 15 jan. 2025.
STATISTA - Data Center - Worldwide. 2024d. Disponível em: https://www.statista.com/outlook/tmo/data-center/worldwide. Acesso em: 21 nov. 2024.
STATISTA - Frequency of data center server replacement worldwide 2018-2020. 2024f. Disponível em: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109492/frequency-of-data-center-system-refresh-replacement-worldwide/. Acesso em: 18 jan. 2025.
STATISTA - Leading semiconductor companies worldwide as of November 15, 2024, by market capitalization. 2024g. Disponível em: https://www.statista.com/statistics/283359/top-20-semiconductor-companies/. Acesso em: 26 nov. 2024.
STATISTA - Number of hyperscale data centers worldwide from 2015 to 2023. 2024c. Disponível em: https://www.statista.com/statistics/633826/worldwide-hyperscale-data-center-numbers/. Acesso em: 19 nov. 2024.
STATISTA - Number of internet and social media users worldwide as of October 2024. 2024h. Disponível em: https://www.statista.com/statistics/617136/digital-population-worldwide/. Acesso em: 05 dez. 2024.
STATISTA - Revenue in the Data Center market for different segments Worldwide from 2018 to 2029. 2024e. Disponível em: https://www.statista.com/forecasts/1441973/revenue-data-center-market-for-different-segments-worldwide. Acesso em: 21 nov. 2024.
STATISTA - Which Countries Have The Most Data Centers? 2024b. Disponível em: https://www.statista.com/chart/24149/data-centers-per-country/. Acesso em: 19 nov. 2024.
SWITCH - design, construction and operation of data centers. Switch Data Center Locations. 2024. Nevada, U.S. Disponível em: https://www.switch.com/locations/. Acesso em: 20 nov. 2024.
THE WHITE HOUSE. Fact Sheet: Biden-Harris administration takes further action to strengthen and secure critical mineral supply chains. 2024. Briefing Room, Statements and Releases. Disponível em: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/20/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-takes-further-action-to-strengthen-and-secure-critical-mineral-supply-chains/. Acesso em: 25 nov. 2024.
UNITED NATIONS. Digital Economy Report 2024: shaping an environmentally sustainable and inclusive digital future. New York, NY, U.S: United Nations Publications, 2024. 274 p. https://doi.org/10.18356/9789213589779c003.
UNITED STATES. Implementation of additional export controls: certain advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items; supercomputer and semiconductor end use; entity list modification. Federal Register, n. 2022-21658, 13 out. 2022. Disponível em: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/10/13/2022-21658/implementation-of-additional-export-controls-certain-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor. Acesso em: 26 nov. 2024.
VRIES, A. de. The growing energy footprint of artificial intelligence. Joule, [S.L.], v. 7, n. 10, p. 2191-2194, out. 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2023.09.004.
WANG, P.; ZHANG, L.; TZACHOR, A.; CHEN, W. E-waste challenges of generative artificial intelligence. Nature Computational Science, [S.L.], v. 4, n. 11, p. 818-823, 28 out. 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43588-024-00712-6.
WELSCH, C. As the world goes digital, datacenters that make the cloud work look to renewable energy sources. Microsoft. [S.L.], p. 1. nov. 2022. Disponível em: https://news.microsoft.com/source/emea/features/as-the-world-goes-digital-datacenters-that-make-the-cloud-work-look-to-renewable-energy-sources/. Acesso em: 21 dez. 2024.
XINYUE, H. Emerging Battleground: China’s critical minerals leverage in the chip war. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, p. 1. nov. 2024. Disponível em: https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/idss/ip24093-emerging-battleground-chinas-critical-minerals-leverage-in-the-chip-war/. Acesso em: 22 nov. 2024.
ZHA, D.; BHAT, Z. P.; LAI, K.; YANG, F.; JIANG, Z.; ZHONG, S.; HU, X. Data-centric Artificial Intelligence: A Survey. ArXiv preprint, [S.L.], 2023. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2303.10158.
ZHOU, W. Why China’s critical mineral strategy goes beyond geopolitics. World Economic Forum (WEF). [S.L.], p. 1. nov. 2024. Disponível em: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/11/china-critical-mineral-strategy-beyond-geopolitics/. Acesso em: 25 nov. 2024.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2024 João Henrique Santana Stacciarini, Ricardo Junior de Assis Fernandes Gonçalves