Far-right political forces in Brazil may push the Amazon to a tipping point

Abstract

The spatial distribution of votes for the 2022’s presidential election in Brazil overlaid with the range of the Brazilian biomes indicated a political division within these ecoregions. A high number of supporters to the far-right concentrated in the southern Amazon, while a concentration of votes for the center-left wing was observed in the most pristine region of the Brazilian Amazon and also in the Caatinga biome. In the Legal Amazon, there was a strong positive relation between the proportion of votes per municipality for the far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro and the total forest loss accumulated in the last 36 years prior to this election (1985-2021) in each municipality. This region with a historical high rate of deforestation also concentrates various crimes and practices that drive environmental and social impacts, such as land grabbing in public land, mining in indigenous territories, illegal logging in protected areas, expulsion of traditional populations and increased use of agro-chemicals and gun permits. The strengthening and continued convergence of these policies and practices may lead the Amazon to a tipping point, which prevents the recovery and maintenance of its ecosystem services, triggering irreversible environmental, social and economic impacts. Reversing this trend depends on measures and actions of the executive, legislative and judicial powers, in all three spheres (municipal, state and federal), and involves the election of local and regional political forces that represent counterpoints to the anti-socio-environmental agendas that are being strengthened in the current context.