ANALYSIS OF TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL IN THE CITY OF RECIFE, STATE OF PERNAMBUCO: A STUDY BETWEEN 1962 AND 2023

Abstract

Precipitation plays a fundamental role in tropical regions, influencing human, economic, and environmental activities. Knowledge of the characteristics of this climatological variable is essential for planning and monitoring the impacts caused by rain, and one way to analyze changes is to monitor the evolution of the percentiles of the precipitation probability density function. Thus, the objective was to check for significant changes in the rainfall regime in Recife-PE, classify rainfall according to its intensity, and highlight the frequencies of extreme events that occurred. The data were obtained from the Pernambuco Water and Climate Agency. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Kruskal-Wallis tests were applied to check whether the precipitation belonged to the same station and whether they were significant, then modeled by the Weibull distribution. The modeling proved to be effective for events of up to 100 mm and in the classification of rainfall. Statistically, the rainfall between 1993 and 2023 differed from those between 1962 and 1992, indicating changes in rainfall behavior. Notably, over the past 30 years, there has been an increase in the frequency of rainfall extremes with an intensity equal to or greater than 36.90 mm. These results provide support for planning public policies, with regard to reducing the negative impacts caused by rainfall.