Keywords
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Standardized Precipitation Index
ENSO
How to Cite
Abstract
Extreme precipitation events and drought periods have intensified in recent decades, reflecting changes in the hydrological cycle associated with climate change and natural climate variability. This study analyzed precipitation anomalies, temporal trends, and changes in the rainfall regime in the municipality of Frutal, Brazil, between 1990 and 2025, using ERA5-Land reanalysis data. Rainfall variability was assessed using the Rainfall Anomaly Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index, while temporal trends were investigated using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Data processing was performed in the cloud-based Google Earth Engine platform, and the influence of large-scale climate patterns was examined based on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Annual precipitation totals ranged from approximately 765 to 1,923 mm, with a mean of 1,314 mm, indicating high interannual variability. Predominantly wet conditions were observed during the early decades of the series, followed by an intensification of negative anomalies after 2010, and trend analysis revealed a statistically significant decrease in annual precipitation. The SPI-12 and RAI indices showed strong agreement in identifying rainfall anomalies, while correlation analyses indicated a moderate positive association between precipitation and the PDO (r ≈ 0.43), as well as consistency with ENSO events. It is concluded that Frutal has undergone a transition toward progressively drier conditions, which directly affects water availability and the sustainability of local agricultural activities, highlighting the need for adaptation strategies and water resource management.
References
ARAÚJO, L. E.; MORAES NETO, J. M.; SOUSA F. A. S. Classificação da precipitação anual e da quadra chuvosa da bacia do rio Paraíba utilizando índice de Anomalia de Chuva (IAC). Revista Abi-Agua. v. 4. n. 3, p. 93-110, 2009. https://doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.105
BARROS, V. S.; GOMES, V. K. I.; SILVA JÚNIOR, I. B. da; SILVA, A. S. V. da; SILVA, A. S. A. da; BEJAN, L. B.; STOSIC, T. Trend analysis in standardized precipitation index in Recife–PE. Research, Society and Development, v. 10, n. 8, e52310817458, 2021. https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i8.17458
BLAIN, G. C.; KAYANO, M. T. 118 anos de dados mensais do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação: série meteorológica de Campinas, estado de São Paulo. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, São Paulo, v. 1, p. 137-148, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862011000100012
BOLDRIN, A. C. D.; FUZZO, B. E.; FISCHER FILHO, J. A.; FUZZO, D. F. Remote Observation of the Impacts of Land Use on Rainfall Variability in the Triângulo Mineiro (Brazilian Cerrado Region). Remote Sensing, v. 17, n. 16, p. 2866, 2025. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17162866
CHEBANA, F.; OUARDA, T. B. M. J.; DUONG, T. C. Testing for multivariate trends in hydrologic frequency analysis. Journal of Hydrology, v. 486, p. 519-530, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.007
EISNER, S.; FLORKE, M.; CHAMORRO, A.; DAGGUPATI, P.; DONNELLY, C.; HUANG, J.; HUNDECHA, Y.; KOCH, H.; KALUGIN, A.; KRYLENK, I.; MISHRA, V.; PINIEWSKI, A.; KRYLENKO, I. MISHRA, V.; PINIEWSKI, M.; SAMANIEGO, L.; SAIDOU, O.; WALLNER, M.; KRYSANOVA. An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins. Climatic Change, v. 141, n. 3, p. 401–417, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1844-5
EL-BASIR, M. A. A.; HAMED, Y.; SELIM, T.; BERNDTSSON, R.; HELMI, A. M. Developing rainfall spatial distribution for using geostatistical gap-filled terrestrial gauge records in the mountainous region of Oman. Water, v. 17, n. 18, p. 2695, 2025. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17182695
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (ECMWF). ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Disponível em: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-land. Acesso em: 14 maio 2026.
FREITAS, M. A. S. Um sistema de suporte à decisão para o monitoramento de secas meteorológicas em regiões semi-áridas. Revista Tecnologia. v. suplem., p. 84-95, 2005. https://doi.org/10.5020/23180730.1998.1175
FONSECA, R. G. Estudo e análise da variabilidade e tendência da precipitação no Triângulo Mineiro e Alto Paranaíba. 2024. Tese (Doutorado em Geografia). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). 117p. Disponível em: https://bdtd.ibict.br/vufind/Record/UNSP_e9962fa6dc96c7123f22afac784222f4. Acesso em: 19 out. 2025.
GOIS, G.; TERASSI, P. M. B.; FREITAS, J. S.; SILVA, S. S.; SOBRAL, B. S.; PAIVA, R. F. P. S.; FREITAS, W. K.; CARVALHO NETO, G.; COSTA JUNIOR, D. S.; MOREIA, J. G. V.; OLIVEIRA, E.; JOSÉ, J. V.; MUNIZ, M. A.; FLACÃO, J. B. Análise da variabilidade interanual da seca via índice de precipitação padronizada (SPI) associada ao EL Nino- Oscilação Sul (ENOS) no Estado do Acre (AC). Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, v. 35, p. 560–585, 2024. https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v35i20.17936
GORELICK, N.; HANCHER, M.; DIXON, M.; ILYUSHCHENKO, S.; THAU, D.; MOORE, R. Google Earth Engine: planetary-scale geospatial analysis for everyone. Remote Sensing of Environment, v. 202, p. 18-27, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.06.031
GOOGLE. Google Earth Engine. Disponível em: https://earthengine.google.com. Acesso em: 14 maio 2026.
GRIMM, A. M.; BARROS, V. R.; DOYLE, M. E. Climate variability in southern South America associated with El Niño and La Niña events. Journal of Climate, v.13, n. 1, p. 35-58, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3C0035:CVISSA%3E2.0.CO;2
HAO, Z.; AGHAKOUCHAK, A. A nonparametric multivariate multi-index drought monitoring framework. Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 15, p. 89-101, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0160.1
HELSEL, D. R. Nondetects and Data Analysis. Statistics for Censored Environmental Data. John Wiley and Sons, New York, v. 5, p. 268, 2006. https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2005.0106br
HOLENDER, B. V.; SANTOS, E. B. Análise de tendência dos eventos de precipitação intensa no Sudeste do Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, v. 32, 2023. https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v32i19.16411
IBGE – INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA. Manual técnico de geomorfologia. 2. ed. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2009. Disponível em: https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/index.php/biblioteca-catalogo?view=detalhes&id=281612. Acesso em: 17 mar. 2024.
INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA (IBGE). Sistema de Referência Geocêntrico para as Américas – SIRGAS2000. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE. Disponível em: https://www.ibge.gov.br/geociencias/downloads-geociencias.html. Acesso em: 14 maio 2026.
INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA (IBGE). Malha municipal digital do Brasil, 2024. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE. Disponível em: https://www.ibge.gov.br/geociencias/organizacao-do-territorio/malhas-territoriais.html. Acesso em: 14 maio 2026.
JAIN, V. K.; PANDEY, R. P.; JAIN, M. K.; BYUN, H. R. Comparison of drought indices for appraisal of drought characteristics in the Ken River Basin. Weather and Climate Extremes, v. 8, p. 1-11, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.05.002
JANG, M. J.; YOON, H. C. H. Seasonal teleconnections between SPI-6 and ocean–atmosphere variability for drought prediction in Korea. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kscej.2026.100506
KENDALL, M. G. Rank Correlation Methods. 4. ed. London: Charles Griffin, 1975, p. 272.
LIMA, B. S.; SILVA, C. B.; SILVA, M. E. Padrão Sazonal da Precipitação e Circulação na América do Sul Associado à Oscilação Decadal do Pacífico no Período 1970-2003. Revista do Departamento de Geografia, v. especial, p. 140-147, 2018. https://doi.org/10.11606/rdg.v0ispe.145309
LU, C.; MA, L.; SUN, B.; HUANG, X.; LIU, T. China’s seasonal precipitation: quantitative attribution of ocean–atmosphere teleconnections and near-surface forcing. Hydrology, v. 13, n. 1, p. 19, 2026. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13010019
MACHADO FILHO, H.; MORAES, C.; BENNATI, P.; RODRIGUES, R. A.; GUILLES, M.; ROCHA, P.; LIMA, A.; VASCONCELOS, I. Mudança do clima e os impactos na agricultura familiar no Norte e Nordeste do Brasil. Centro Internacional de Políticas para o Crescimento Inclusivo (IPC-IG), Brasília. 1-65 p. 2016. Disponível em: https://www.embrapa.br/busca-de-publicacoes/-/publicacao/1046425/mudanca-do-clima-e-os-impactos-na-agricultura-familiar-no-norte-e-nordeste-do-brasil. Acesso em: 15 set. 2024.
MANN, H. B. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, v. 13, n. 3, p. 245–259, 1945. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
MANTUA, N. J.; HARE, S.R.; ZHANG, Y.; WALLACE, J.M.; FRANCIS, R.C. A Pacific Interdecenal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v. 78, n. 6, p. 1069-1080, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078%3C1069:APICOW%3E2.0.CO;2
MAHFOUZ, P.; MITRI, G.; JAZI, M.; KARAM, F. Investigating the Temporal Variability of the Standardized Precipitation Index in Lebanon. Climate, v. 4, n. 27, 2016. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4020027
MARENGO, J. A.; TOMASELLA, J.; SOARES, W. R.; ALVES, L. M. E.; NOBRE, C.A. Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin. Theoretical Applied Climatology, v. 107, n. 1-2, p. 73-85, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0465-1
MARENGO, J. A. Mudanças climáticas, condições meteorológicas extremas e eventos climáticos no Brasil. Mudanças climáticas e eventos extremos no Brasil. FBDS, 2012. Disponível em: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.editoraroncarati.com.br/v2/phocadownload/opiniao_seg/05/fbds_lloyds_11-11.pdf. Acesso em: 05 jan. 2025.
MCKEE, T. B.; NOLAN, J. D.; KLEIST, J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. p. 179-183, 1993. Disponível em: https://climate.colostate.edu/pdfs/relationshipofdroughtfrequency.pdf. Acesso em 22 out. 2025.
PÁRRAGA, G. O. Dinâmica da Variabilidade Climática da Precipitação Sobre a América do Sul. Tese (Doutorado em Meteorologia), São José dos Campos: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, INP. 2003. Disponível em: https://bdtd.ibict.br/vufind/Record/INPE_4ebbf962c1e0d61c18f680ac03c4e389. Acesso em: 23 nov. 2025.
PERES, T. C.; AQUINO, F. E.; VIANA, D. R. Regionalização das anomalias de precipitação no sudeste da América do Sul. Revista Caminhos da Geografia, Uberlândia, MG, v. 24, n. 95, p. 210-222, 2023. https://doi.org/10.14393/RCG249567182
QGIS DEVELOPMENT TEAM. QGIS Geographic Information System. Open Source Geospatial Foundation Project. 2025. Disponível em: https://qgis.org/. Acesso em: 14 maio 2026.
REBOITA, S. M.; AMBRIZZI, T.; CRESPO, N. M.; DUTRA, L. M. M.; FERREIRA, G. W. S.; DRUMOND, A.; ROCHA, R. P.; SOUZA, C. A. S. Impacts of teleconnection patterns on South America climate. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, v. 1504, p. 1-38, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14592
ROOY, M. P. V. A rainfall anomaly index independent of time and space. Notos. Weather Bureau of South Africa, v. 14, p. 43-48, 1965.
SANTOS, D. C.; SANTOS, C. A. G.; BRASIL NETO, R. M.; SILVA, R. M.; SANTOS, C. A. C. Precipitation variability using GPCC data and its relationship with atmospheric teleconnections in Northeast Brazil. Climate Dynamics, v. 61, n. 11-12, p. 5035-5048, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06838-z
SILVA JÚNIOR, J. A. Análise de índices de precipitação utilizando dados BR-DWGD na Bacia hidrográfica do rio Terra Nova, Pernambuco. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia. V. 37, p. 455-473, 2025. https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v37i21.19455
SILVA, G. A. M. da; AMBRIZZI, T. Summertime moisture transport over Southeastern South America and extratropical cyclones behavior during inter-El Niño events. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, v. 101, p. 303-310, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0218-6
SILVA. J. P. R.; REBOITA, M. S.; ESCOBAR, G. C. J. Caracterização da zona de convergência do Atlantico Sul em Campos Atmosféricos Recentes. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, v. 25, 2019. https://doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v25i0.64101
SILVA, T. R. B. F.; SANTOS, C. A. C.; SILVA, D. J. F.; SANTOS, C. A. G.; SILVA, R. M.; BRITO, J. B. Climate Indices-Based Analysis of Rainfall Spatiotemporal Variability in Pernambuco State, Brazil. Water, v. 14, n. 14, p. 2190, 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14142190
SOUSA, R. R.; COSTA, R. A.; ASSUNÇÃO, H. F. Variações Pluviométricas no Triângulo Mineiro – MG. Revista GeoNordeste. n.2, 2009. https://periodicos.ufs.br/geonordeste/article/view/2462
SOUSA, J. W.; ANDRADE, A. V. C.; DA COSTA, D. B. Análise de episódios El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) e a variabilidade interanual de chuvas em Rio Branco, Acre, intervalo 1971-2010. Scientia Naturalis, v. 3, n. 5, 2021. https://doi.org/10.29327/269504.3.5-21
Von Storch, H. Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques. In: ed H. V. Storch, A. Navarra, Springer-Verlag, New York. p. 11–26, 1995.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03167-4_2
WAGESHO, N.; GOEL, N. K.; JAIN, M. K. Investigation of non-stationarity in hydro-climatic variables at Rift Valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Journal of Hydrology, v. 444-445, p.113-133, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.011
XAVIER JÚNIOR, S. F. A.; JALE, J. S.; STOSIC, T.; SANTOS, A. A. C.; SINGH, V. P. Precipitation trends analysis by Mann-Kendall test: a case study of Paraíba, Brazil. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v. 35, n. 2, p. 187 196, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-7786351013
YOON, J.-H.; ZENG, N. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall. Journal Climate, v.34, p.249 264, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0551-6
ZHANG, H.; DELWORTH, T. L.; ENG, F.; VECCHI, G.; PAFFENDORF, L. J. Detection, Attribution, and Projection of Regional Rainfall Changes on (Multi-) Decadal Time Scales: A Focus on Southeastern South America. Journal of Climatology, v. 29, p. 8515-8534, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0287.1
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2025 Daniela Fernanda da Silva Fuzzo, João Alberto Fischer Filho