SIMULAÇÃO NUMÉRICA DO DESASTRE DE ORIGEM NATURAL OCORRIDO EM JANEIRO DE 2011 NO MUNICÍPIO DE NOVA FRIBURGO, RJ, UTILIZANDO O MODELO BRAMS

Abstract

The concept of natural disaster is defined as the product of a natural event inherent in the dynamics of the earth associated with the vulnerability of a region. This vulnerability could be associated with natural, anthropogenic factors or a combination of these. The year 2011 was marked by the occurrence of a natural disaster that occurred in the Rio de Janeiro Mountain Region (RSRJ) resulting in about 900 deaths and 300,000 people affected. In the city of Nova Friburgo there were 420 fatalities and about 180 thousand people directly and indirectly affected by the natural disaster. This article analyzes the synoptic and mesoscale environment that culminated in the natural disaster in the city of Nova Friburgo. The Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) atmospheric model was used to simulate the behavior of the atmosphere from January 11 to 14, 2011. It was verified from GOES-12 satellite images, Enhanced Temperature channel, and BRAMS simulations that the heavy rains that caused the RSRJ disasters were generated by the displacement of a cold front that coupled the Moist Convergence Zone, organizing the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.