Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju/SE, Brazil

Abstract

Environmental scenario building is a valuable tool for planning and management purposes. Considering the rapid pace of changes in geographical areas, the use of such tools to predict future scenarios based on present situations can be important in establishing potential scenarios for optimal land use and conservation in the coastal zone. The present study aims to build prospective environmental scenarios for the coastal neighborhoods of the city of Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil. A qualitative approach was used from the following stages: establishment of the central issue, identification of driving forces, delimitation of critical uncertainties, determination of logical scenarios and elaboration of scenarios. Three scenarios were established: the current scenario, based on the assessment of the environmental status of the landscape, on the analysis of the spatialization of the occupation and on the delimitation of the acting driving forces; the tendential scenario (pessimistic), based on trends in recent decades through to the present and the environmental conditions of natural units; and the recommended scenario (optimistic) built due to the compatibility between use/occupation and support capacity of the landscape. Our results show that in the current situation, parts of the natural units are unstable owing to disorderly urban expansion resulting from the joint action of public and private actors. These actions may aggravate the landscape instability in the tendential scenario, decreasing the supporting capacity and increasing hazardous situations. A recommended scenario was built for planning purposes, with the aim of making urban growth compatible with the preservation of the most susceptible natural units, and respecting both the landscape supporting capacity and legal parameters. This scenario can be used not only for predictions, but to prevent the reoccurrence of calamitous situations.