Keywords
Deforestation
Land-use and cover change
Mapbiomas
Land Change Modeler
How to Cite
Abstract
The Western Santa Catarina region underwent significant changes due to the 20th-century colonization, which led to landscape fragmentation and Atlantic Forest decline. The present study is an analysis of historical land-use change dynamics observed from 1985 to 2023, besides predicting future changes expected to happen up to 2050. It was done by using MapBiomas Collection 9 reclassified into 12 categories. Land use changes were modeled with TerrSet Land Change Modeler based on the Weighted Normalized Likelihood to model transition potentials; furthermore, the Markov chain approach was applied to model future scenarios. Model validation was performed through computing accuracy and agreement/disagreement statistics to compare a predicted map for 2023 data to a 2023 ground truth map, which proved highly accurate (0.936). Results recorded for the 2023–2050-time frame have shown that soybean areas are projected to increase by 38% and planted forests by 37.3%; therefore, they remain as key land use drivers. Native forest remnants will decline due to Mixed Ombrophilous Forest loss by 37.2% in addition to the 25% loss recorded from 1985 to 2023, and to increasing landscape fragmentation. The model accurately mapped the 2050 landscape and highlighted future regional challenges, according to which, soybeans and forest plantations will be the major change drivers in the region. This progress will have consequences for the remaining native forests. Result scopes are essential to help better understanding future impacts of land use change on ecosystems and communities and consequently, to lay the foundation for informed decision-making, as well as to guide conservation and landscape management.
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