APPLICATION OF MONTE CARLO METHOD TO ASSESS SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY IN RISK ANALYSES OF OCCURRENCE OF RESPIRATORY DISEASES IN BELO HORIZONTE (MG)

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the associations between the occurrence of respiratory diseases among children aged 0 to 05 years old, health vulnerability, and climatic elements in Belo Horizonte (MG), using spatial models involving  Hierarchical Weight Analysis and  Monte Carlo method. While demonstrating the phenomena spatiality, the aim was to contribute to a greater understanding of socio-spatial and environmental aspects. The model adopted enabled the assessment of spatial uncertainty and sensitivity in the analysis of damage risks to the respiratory system, making it a valuable tool that allows for spatialization, better visualization, and analysis of the determinant factors of health conditions. It was possible to identify areas with greater or lesser risk of occurrence of respiratory diseases and their association with seasonal behaviors. The areas at greatest risk coincide, in January and April, with regions with increased thermal amplitude, higher concentrations of carbon monoxide, reduced air humidity and with sectors that present high and very high categories of the Health Vulnerability Index. t  It was observed that some types of socio-spatial organizations (low-income areas, close to industrial complexes and with high vulnerability) also cause harm to the health of the population.