Abstract
The aim was to evaluate the performance of active index stock funds in the Brazilian market, over more than 21 years, based on the CAPM model, in order to highlight if there exist management skills to outperform the Ibovespa benchmark, controlling for the influence of survivorship bias in the generation of abnormal returns. The study used secondary data and a quantitative approach. The sample considered 588 active index stock funds from January 1997 to December 2019. The abnormal returns were calculated by regressing the funds’ monthly returns against the Ibovespa’ monthly returns, both in excess of the CDI rate. That is, using the regression equation of the CAPM model. The results revealed that the analyzed funds, in average and median values, had a positive significant performance. From the total sample, 64.6% of the funds showed a positive alpha, that is, a risk-adjusted performance superior to that of the Ibovespa in the analyzed period. It was also found that the survival bias factor, in the long run, had considerable influence on the performance results. The performance of the discontinued funds was, on average, significantly lower than that of the funds in operation. These results may support further research and decision making by investors who wish to understand the abnormal returns of these funds relative to the Ibovespa over the long term, and also to assist in the selection of funds aiming at superior returns to those provided by the benchmark index.
References
Ali, M. A., Aqil, M., Kazmi, S. H. A., & Zaman, S. I. (2021). Evaluation of risk adjusted performance of mutual funds in an emerging market. International Journal of Finance & Economics. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2486
Anbima, Associação Brasileira das Entidades dos Mercados Financeiro e de Capitais, (2015). Classificação de Fundos: Visão geral e nova estrutura. 19p.
Borges, E. C., & Martelanc, R. (2015). Sorte ou habilidade: uma avaliação dos fundos de investimento no Brasil. Revista de Administração, 50(2), 196–207. https://doi.org/10.5700/rausp1194
Borges Junior, D. M., & Malaquias, R. F. (2019). Restrições de resgate em fundos de ações, liquidez dos ativos e desempenho. Revista de Administração de Empresas, 59(1). https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-759020190105
Brinson, G. P., Hood, L. R., & Beebower, G. L. (1986). Determinants of portfolio performance. Financial Analysts Journal, 42(4), 39-44.
Castro, B. R., & Minardi, A. M. A. F. (2009). Comparação do Desempenho dos Fundos de Ações Ativos e Passivos. Revista Brasileira de Finanças, 7(2), 1–13.
Carhart, M. M. (1997). On persistence in mutual fund performance. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 57-82. https://doi.org/10.2307/2329556
Carneiro, R. (2014). A influência da certificação dos administradores de carteira brasileiros no desempenho de fundos de investimento. Dissertação de Mestrado em Administração. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
Casavecchia, L., & Hulley, H. (2018). Are mutual fund investors paying for noise? International Review of Financial Analysis, 58, 8-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.04.002
Cremers, K. M., & Petajisto, A. (2009). How active is your fund manager? A new measure that predicts performance. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(9), 3329-3365. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhp057
Cremers, K. M., Fulkerson, J. A., & Riley, T. B. (2019). Challenging the conventional wisdom on active management: A review of the past 20 years of academic literature on actively managed mutual funds. Financial Analysts Journal, 75(4), 8-35. https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2019.1628555
Elton, E. J., Gruber, M. J., & Blake, C. R. (1996). Survivor bias and mutual fund performance. The Review of Financial Studies, 9(4), 1097-1120.
Elton, E. J., Gruber, M. J., & Busse, J. A. (2004). Are Investors Rational? Choices among Index Funds. The Journal of Finance, 59(1), 261-288. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00633.x
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
Fama, E. F. (1991). Efficient capital markets: II. The Journal of Finance, 46(5), 1575-1617. https://doi.org/10.2307/2328565
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2010). Luck versus skill in the cross‐section of mutual fund returns. The Journal of Finance, 65(5), 1915-1947. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01598.x
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427–465. https://doi.org/10.2307/2329112
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2015). A five-factor asset pricing model. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.10.010
Fama, E. F., Fisher, L., Jensen, M. C., & Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.2307/2525569
Fonseca, N. F., Bressan, A. A., Iquiapaza, R. A., & Guerra, J. P. (2007). Análise do Desempenho Recente de Fundos de Investimento no Brasil. Contabilidade Vista & Revista, 18(1), 95-116.
Fernandes, A. R. D. J., Fonseca, S. E., & Iquiapaza, R. A. (2018). Modelos de mensuração de desempenho e sua influência na captação líquida de fundos de investimento. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 29(78), 435-451. https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x201805330
Grinblatt, M., & Titman, S. (1989). Mutual fund performance: An analysis of quarterly portfolio holdings. Journal of Business, 62(3), 393-416.
Gruber, M. J. (1996). Another Puzzle: The Growth in Actively Managed Mutual Funds. The Journal of Finance, 51(3), 783-810. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb02707.x
Hoberg, G., Kumar,N., & Prabhala, N. (2018). Mutual fund competition, managerial skill, and alpha persistence. The Review of Financial Studies, 31(5), 1896–1929. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx127
Jensen, M. C. (1968). The performance of mutual funds in the period 1945-1964. The Journal of Finance, 23(2), 389-416. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00815.x
Jensen, M. C. (1969). Risk, the pricing of capital assets, and the evaluation of investment portfolios. The Journal of Business, 42(2), 167-247.
Lintner, J. (1965). The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 47(1), 13-37. https://doi.org/10.2307/1924119
Malaquias, R., & Maestri, C. (2017). Effects of Manager Characteristics on Portfolio Composition of Multimarket Funds. Revista Universo Contábil, 13(2), 89–108. https://doi.org/10.4270/RUC.2017210
Malkiel, B. G. (1995). Returns from investing in equity mutual funds 1971 to 1991. The Journal of Finance, 50(2), 549-572. https://doi.org/10.2307/2329419
Matallín-Sáez, J. C., Soler-Domínguez, A., & Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2018). Active management and mutual fund performance. Applied Economic Analysis, 26(78), 43-79.
Matos, P. R. F., Penna, C. M., & Silva, A. B. G. (2015). Fundos Mútuos de Investimento em Ações no Brasil: Incentivos, Gestão e Convergência. Brazilian Business Review, 12(2), 115–149. https://doi.org/10.15728/bbr.2015.12.2.6
Mossin, J. (1966). Equilibrium in a capital asset market. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 768-783.
Riley, T. B. (2021). Portfolios of actively managed mutual funds. Financial Review, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1111/fire.12257
Ross, S. A., Westerfield, R. W., & Jaffe, J. F. (1995). Administração Financeira. São Paulo: Atlas.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442. https://doi.org/10.2307/2977928
Sharpe, W. F. (1966). Mutual fund performance. The Journal of Business, 39(1), 119-138.
Sharpe, W. F. (1991). The arithmetic of active management. Financial Analysts Journal, 47(1), 7-9.
Silva, S. E., Roma, C. M. da S., & Iquiapaza, R. A. (2018). A Taxa de Administração Sinaliza o Desempenho dos Fundos de Investimento em Ações no Brasil?. Revista de Educação e Pesquisa Em Contabilidade (REPeC), 12(3), 286–302. https://doi.org/10.17524/repec.v12i3.1717
Silva, S. E., Roma, C. M. da S., & Iquiapaza, R. A. (2020). Portfolio turnover and performance of equity investment funds in Brazil. Revista Contabilidade e Finanças, 31(83), 332–347. https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x201909420
Stark, J. R. (2019). Decomposing mutual fund alpha into security selection and security weighting. Journal of Empirical Finance, 52, 76-91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.03.001
Wermers, R. (2000). Mutual fund performance: An empirical decomposition into stock‐picking talent, style, transactions costs, and expenses. The Journal of Finance, 55(4), 1655-1695.
São políticas de direitos autorais da MiP:
I - ao enviar o material para publicação, os autores automaticamente abrem mão de seus direitos autorais, conforme normas Creative Commons, adotada pela revista;
II - os artigos que não forem aprovados para publicação na revista, não terão os direitos autorais retidos;
III - é proibida a tradução de artigos publicados na Revista para outro idioma sem a autorização por escrito do Editor(a)-chefe e detentores dos direitos autorais.